We are only a few weeks away from Wonder Woman hitting theatres, and the hollywood trades are here to give us their predictions. The number that is currently being touted around is $65 million for the opening weekend. As Deadline reports, Wonder Woman is tracking at an estimated $65 million+ opening, and is appealing to all quads. This number can go up or down by at least $10 million. Movie tickets are already on sale in the US, but not in Canada. Canada is usually included in the domestic box office for Hollywood films. Canada could very well push Wonder Woman from $65 to $75 million.
This opening is on par with Wonder Woman‘s Marvel counterpart Captain America: The First Avenger which opened at $65 mil. Now compared to the previous DCEU films, Man of Steel opened with $116 million, Suicide Squad opened at $133 million, and Batman v Superman opened at $166 million. If these are any indication of how well Wonder Woman is gonna do at the box office, it should open at a respectable $100-$115 million. It will remain the lowest to open for the DCEU, but it will be one of the biggest openings for a female lead action film.
The worldwide box office will certainly help make headlines for the film, because it set for a same-day release in some of the major foreign markets, including China. The question becomes, will Wonder Woman take long to reach $300 million (when most films break even) and will it carry to a $600-$800 million gross.
The highest grossing live action film directed by a woman is Phyllida Lloyd’s Mamma Mia! This film grossed $609 million worldwide, which was bigger than Iron Man’s $585 million that same year. Patty Jenkins is the first woman director to direct a $100 million film, and it needs to beat Mamma Mia! to be considered a success for women directors and to prove that woman should be trusted with big budget films. The stigma is strong, but Jenkins might be the one to beat it. If not, it would have to be Ava DuVernay’s A Wrinkle in Time.
Another hurdle will be Gal Gadot. This is her first major leading role. Women lead action films are rare and rarely succeed, especially with less known actresses in the lead. The most successful women led action film is the Hunger Games, and that had Oscar nominated actress as the lead. The other women led action successes were The Force Awakens and Rogue One, but that could be due to the Star Wars brand. The film & Gadot has the the character to propel them forward, many people are excited for Wonder Woman and not necessarily Gal Gadot. There is also a vocal group that are against Gadot for comments concerning the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is not often an actor gets their political views entangled with their films, particularly films about a warrior of justice. This may be a controversy the DCEU did not anticipate, and may have a impact at the box office. We will have to wait and see if the
Wonder Woman is also going to go up against an animated film the same weekend, Captain Underpants. A superhero animated film aimed at kids and families does not bode well for the first major female lead action films. The next weekend will also be a hurdle to stay ate number one, because Tom Cruise is running into theatres with The Mummy. Wonder Woman will also need to somehow overcome the success of Guardians of the Galaxy 2, which opened at $145 million domestic and $495 million worldwide. GOTG2 will also still be in theatres when Wonder Woman arrives.
In summary, to be considered a success Wonder Woman needs to open north of $100 million domestically, north of $300 million worldwide, and also surpass $609 million to be a success for women directed films. It also must stay at number 1 opening weekend, and remain in number 1 for the week The Mummy hits. Wonder Woman has a great battle ahead, but if the film is anything like the character, it will win.
What do you think? Does the box office even matter to you? Comment and share.